Analysis: Liam Lawson’s Promotion to Red Bull Racing and Its Impact on Yuki Tsunoda’s Future in Formula 1

ByDavid Schneider Hours
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The announcement that Liam Lawson will join Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing for the 2025 Formula 1 season is undoubtedly significant, but it also raises pressing questions about Yuki Tsunoda’s future in the sport.

In a media round during the Hungarian Grand Prix, Tsunoda himself admitted the prospect of Lawson being promoted ahead of him felt “weird.” For many fans and paddock insiders, this is an understatement. The general consensus has been that Tsunoda, after years of dedication and development within the Red Bull program, deserved the seat next to Verstappen.

The writing had been on the wall for a while. Sergio Pérez’s rumored departure from Red Bull has been the subject of speculation for months. However, today’s announcement solidifies that Lawson, a rookie with fewer than twelve Formula 1 races under his belt, has leapfrogged Tsunoda to claim the coveted seat. It’s a dramatic turn of events, especially considering Lawson’s career was at risk earlier this year until his management successfully negotiated assurances for his place within the Red Bull family.

What Does This Mean for Tsunoda?

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This decision is a blow to Tsunoda’s pride and career prospects. In Japanese culture, such a perceived snub is often seen as causing a loss of face, not just within the team but also on the global stage. For a driver who has worked tirelessly to prove himself in Formula 1, this could feel like a public dismissal of his efforts and capabilities.

Tsunoda’s immediate future lies at Racing Bulls (or whatever the team may be branded as in 2025). However, the outlook for the team’s competitiveness is bleak. With Red Bull’s focus shifting to its main team and other midfield teams like Haas, Alpine, and Sauber (no under the capable leadership of Mattia Binotto) making strides, there’s a risk Racing Bulls could struggle to stay off the back of the grid. Even if Tsunoda outperforms a rookie teammate like Isack Hadjar, it’s unlikely to significantly enhance his reputation unless he achieves something extraordinary. 

On the contrary, any slip-up or inconsistency will provide fodder for naysayers who have criticized him for lacking the steadiness required at the top level. These critics often overlook that inconsistency is not unique to Tsunoda; even drivers like Charles Leclerc or Lando Norris have faced similar challenges in 2024. However, the scrutiny on Tsunoda remains harsher, making every race a high-stakes test where he must prove he belongs among Formula 1’s elite.

Could Yuki Be Promoted Later?

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The short answer is yes, but only under circumstances where Red Bull Racing lacks “more suitable” alternatives. According to paddock insiders and sources close to Red Bull, Yuki Tsunoda is not genuinely seen as Red Bull Racing material. A key reason is his status as a Honda-backed driver rather than a true product of the Red Bull Junior Program. With Honda set to exit the Red Bull Partnership after 2025, Red Bull will no longer have any obligation to support someone perceived as an outsider to their tightly-knit driver development ecosystem.

Beyond that, Red Bull is more likely to target a high-profile name after the 2025 season or even consider buying out an experienced driver from an existing contract. This approach aligns with their preference for proven talent over drivers with perceived limitations or external affiliations.

There are even rumors that Alexander Albon, once ousted from the Red Bull Racing seat for underperformance, is back under consideration as a potential teammate for Max Verstappen. While this idea might seem preposterous given Albon’s past struggles, it highlights Red Bull’s apparent readiness to overlook past decisions in their pursuit of the best lineup.

Unfortunately for Tsunoda, this underscores the harsh reality that there is likely no long-term future for him at Red Bull Racing. While many Japanese fans and Tsunoda’s global supporters may hope for a different outcome and a happy ending at the senior team, Formula 1 operates on ruthless pragmatism. As it stands, the Red Bull hierarchy seems to have firmly moved on from considering Tsunoda as part of their main team’s plans.

Lessons from Pierre Gasly

Tsunoda’s situation bears a striking resemblance to that of Pierre Gasly, another driver who showed immense promise but was never fully embraced as Red Bull Racing material. The key difference, Yuki never actually get a chance to prove his worth at the senior team. However, Gasly’s decision to leave the Red Bull program and rebuild his career with Alpine has proven successful, and it’s a path Tsunoda should seriously consider.

With Honda set to partner with Aston Martin in 2026 and potential synergies with any other potential team interested in Honda Power from 2026, Tsunoda might find opportunities through Japanese connections. However, he cannot afford to rely solely on Honda’s backing. Instead, he needs to establish himself as a driver capable of delivering results regardless of his Japanese origins.

The Road Ahead

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For Tsunoda, the challenge now is to maintain his composure, continue delivering strong performances in 2025 as difficult as it may be as we at Shiga Sports foresee, and explore options outside the Red Bull system. His long-term success will depend on his ability to prove that he is championship material, regardless of the team he drives for or his original roots back in Japan.

For Yuki Tsunoda, the time has come to chart his own path, just as others have done before him. Whether that involves Honda, Aston Martin, or another team entirely, the priority must be to showcase his talent on his terms, outside the shadow of Red Bull.

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